Australian Survivor – Season 3 – Super Fan vs Super Rookie – Final 4 Predictions

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How is it already last week of this season? After a crazy couple of weeks, where I’ve constantly predicted the wrong people are going home, we are now down to our final 4, and what an interesting final 4 it has turned out to be. 3 Champions, 1 final Contender, each playing very different games, but all worthy of sitting at that Final Tribal Council. This time last year, I feel that Jericho was so far ahead, that is wasn’t much of a surprise when he won. This year, I truly couldn’t tell you who is going to walk away as the Sole Survivor.

With that in mind, the power rankings are getting a bit of an upgrade this week. Instead of just having me, babble on about each of the remaining contestants, I’ve brought in a friend to have some friendly competition. I, Brendon, the super fan, who has watched every episode of this season (and every episode of every other Australian and US season), will put his predicting skills to the test against Tayla, who has only seen one full episode of Survivor – the most recent episode of this season. Does having a full season of context help in predicting a winner? Or is one episode simply enough? Lets find out. (If Tayla manages to do better than me, we can just put it down to beginners’ luck…)

Brian Lake

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Brendon:

Predicted Finish: Second Place

All things considered, after taking control of the game, Brian has played a very solid game… until the last few episodes. I truly believe Brian’s game started being derailed the minute he took out Steve one Tribal too early. He had the chance to take out Sharn, and still have Steve have no vote the following episode. But now, with Monika being blindsided in Tuesday’s episode, Brian is very much on the outs, and he’s got some real work to do.

The easy prediction is to say that Brian will be the next voted out, but I just can’t see it working out that way. Whether it’s because he wins immunity (the odds seem to be in his favour), Sharn and Shane realise they shouldn’t consider sitting next to each other at the end, or Shonee is convinced to switch back over and cause a tie, I just don’t foresee Brian being taken out in 4th spot… and if he gets to the top 3, I feel he is a lock to the final 2, as he seems to be the most desirable person to sit next to. That said, I don’t see him winning. I just don’t think he has enough friends sitting there, nor do I believe he will be able to convince a majority of the jury. The car curse should live on, taking Brian as it’s next victim.

Tayla:

Predicted Finish: 4th Place

In last place is the one and only Brian. From watching one episode of this entire series I knew this guy was a bit of a d***. He had a “I’m the strongest, the biggest and the baddest” attitude. Brian thought he had it all in the bag, being the only male left in the run for the ultimate Survivor position. He thought he had the little supermodel wrapped around his finger and a strong alliance with Shonee that would push him through to the finale.

Whilst his game plan was commendable, including his hidden immunity idol play, I feel like he really underestimated the other females in the running. He made a dangerous assumption that leaving Shonee from a trip to paradise would retain their allegiance. Brian’s fatal flaw was underestimating the three females and after losing his pawn, the supermodel, he is left exposed with no immunity and odds against him. This is why I believe he will be the next to be eliminated.

Shane Gould

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Brendon:

Predicted Finish: 3rd Place

To put it simply, I can’t actually see anyone thinking to themselves, “you know what will be great, sitting next to Shane Gould at the Final Tribal Council“. She has too good of a story to tell, being an olympic champion, and the oldest player out there. Shane has also been instrumental in some of the big moves that have happened throughout the game. Add to the fact that it is a very Champion-dominated jury, you’d have to think if she is sitting in front of that jury, she will get plenty of votes.

That’s why I have her coming in 3rd. She’s shown that she has great game awareness at times, and she can make a move when needed, but surely, logic prevails in this scenario. If someone is crazy enough to bring Shane Gould to the end (like Brian said he intended to do), then she deserves to win. But, unless Shane is to win the final 2 immunity challenges, I can’t imagine her sitting at the Final Tribal Council.

Tayla:

Predicted Finish: 2nd Place

In second place will be Shane. Whilst there is a possibility she could win due to her unique story, being older and somehow surviving against some major players- I do believe that she is a weak choice for a winner.

Based on the one episode I have watched she was very weak in the challenge and also her game play- she is basically relying on connections to survive which isn’t a fantastic tactic (although currently working for her). She was practically begging people not to vote her out. If the “SHH” alliance hadn’t made the move to convert the vote of Brian to the supermodel her days in the competition would be over. I believe she will be taken to the final with Sharn due to the apparent friendship, I believe her overall game ofSurvivor won’t be enough however, to convince the jury that she deserves to win the ultimate prize and title.

Sharn Coombes

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Brendon:

Predicted Finish: 4th Place

There’s been a bit of trend set through the last 2 seasons of Australian Survivor. It seems the biggest threat of the final 4 gets taken out, in 4th spot. It was Flick in the first season, and Michelle last season. I’ve just got the feeling that history could repeat itself once again.

Sharn is clearly the biggest threat left in the game. She has plenty of connections on the jury, and has aided in controlling a huge portion of the game. She also has won 3 immunity challenges. Now, if she was to make it to the end, after her alliance crumbled, Sharn would have all the ammunition needed to deliver a great Final Tribal Council performance. If she makes it through the top 4, she probably wins this game. I’d just like to think (for the sake of these predictions), that some combination of the other of the Final 4 realise that taking Sharn any further may not end well for them. She’s a criminal barrister, she knows how to speak in front of a jury. They can’t let her get there, or we will more than likely be talking about Sharn as the winner of this season.

Tayla:

Predicted Finish: Winner

Finally, I believe the winner will be Sharn. She showed extreme determination in the challenges I watched and she has been quite strategic in identifying that Brian had an immunity which saved her friends position. From what I heard, Brian has been undefeatable in the challenges so her win in the recent challenge shows that she has what it takes to take him on. She is in a strong position having a good connection with 2/3 of the finalists and also having the physical ability to compete and win in challenges. Based on the one episode I have watched, I believe she has what it takes to sell it to the jury at the end and beat Shane.

 

Shonee Fairfax

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Brendon:

Predicted Finish: Winner

Alright, let’s call it wishful thinking. In a game that has been dominated by the Champions, having the final Contender outlast them all, and be the sole Survivor would be a fitting end to this incredibly enjoyable season. Not only that though, but Shonee would absolutely deserve the win. She has survived 17 Tribal Councils to this point, has only had 4 votes cast against her, and has controlled portions of this game, either with Benji in the pre-merge, or with Brian heading into the last two episodes.

That said, Shonee is in a precarious spot right now. Realistically, I don’t see a scenario where she beats Sharn in the final 2, who has far too many friends on the jury, and besides a few mistakes, has been playing well since the beginning. The best hope for Shonee is that she can find a way to sit with Brian in the Final Tribal Council, because even though he has played a really solid game, there are definitely members of that jury who will, under no circumstances, vote for him to win. Whether that’s forcing a tie at the Final 4, or convincing Shane and Sharn to turn on each other, if Shonee plays her cards right, and sits besides Brian at the Final Tribal Council, it isn’t hard to believe that we could be talking about her as the winner of this season.

Tayla:

Predicted Finish: 3rd Place

In third place will be Shonee. From the one episode I have watched I believe she has a strong game and the ability to take out the title. However, her jumping from Brian’s alliance to the “SHH” team leaves her trust questionable. Coming into the finals I believe the other two “SHH’s” (which appear to have a stronger, longer bond) will eventually turn on her and returning back to Brian ultimately places her in a weak position as he is in a very untrusting mindset (meaning he could easily turn on her for revenge).

If she goes with Brian and they can both trust one another to eliminate the other two “SHH’s” then she may win by favourable position with the jury. However, I have not seen the full picture on either’s game play and therefore not in the position to judge whether anyone on the jury favours her. I do believe she has the motive to eliminate Brian because he is a d***. If she can’t win, I believe she will get satisfaction from beating him.

 

Quick Recap

Brendon – 1st. Shonee, 2nd. Brian, 3rd. Shane, 4th. Sharn

Tayla – 1st. Sharn, 2nd. Shane, 3rd. Shonee, 4th. Brian

 

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